What to take away from the local elections on October 13; and how it will impact your public affairs strategy
1. In a nutshell, key trends from June confirmed (but…)
In Flanders, Bart De Wever remains in control
N-VA's two partners in the new government are also confirming their June positions: CD&V is reaping the rewards of their strategy of supporting the demands of the more rural and agricultural world; Vooruit is regaining a significant place in the Flemish local –rather urban– landscape. Secondly, PVDA is losing its bet in Antwerp, and seems to have plateaued compared with June. The results also confirm the fall of Groen and Open Vld.
In Brussels, tension is palpable
On the Brussels front, gaining votes does not necessarily translate to success in the "second round"—the negotiations to form a communal majority. Negotiations and the choice of joint partners often have more to do with the issues at stake in the formation of the regional government than with the results themselves.
Generally, the three parties likely to form the regional French-speaking majority (MR, PS, and Les Engagés) are dividing the spoils, sometimes at the cost of painful concessions. Still some battlegrounds remain, where the negotiations are influenced by national party presidency agendas.
In Wallonia, the "Azur" coalition continues its rise
In Wallonia, the trends from June have not only held but even strengthened for Les Engagés, who are the big winners of the local elections. They have made gains in every province and most municipalities. Maxime Prévot himself is the big winner, as he is the all-category champion for preference votes and has twice as many preference votes as Georges-Louis Bouchez.
The MR is also progressing, though to a lesser extent. The PS is losing ground almost everywhere, but remains strong in several major cities, which carries symbolic significance. Ecolo is losing seats in many municipalities, particularly in terms of mayoral positions and council majorities, although they made slight gains in provincial elections, which closely align with federal constituencies.
PTB is stabilizing or even stagnating; it may have reached its ceiling but could still join one or more majorities.
Impact on government formation?
At the federal level, the results confirm the trends from June, and the end of the lengthy electoral season should unblock negotiations. While the negotiations should enter their final phase, including the much less popular and more painful measures (including how to balance the budgets and reduce the debt), the leaks and subsequent political declarations show that there is still some post-traumatic stress. As every party around the table feels it has become stronger, finding compromises will remain challenging.
In Brussels, the outlook remains uncertain, with more gridlock on the Dutch-speaking side than on the French-speaking side. While the situation remains complicated, at least the election deadline can no longer be used as an excuse for further delays.
2. Good News: Belgium is still here
It’s traditional for party leaders to declare victory on election night, and this time, it’s almost true. Depending on the level (communal or provincial) and the metrics, everyone can claim some victory.
The nearly perfect proportionality of the Belgian political system has made the new political map a true patchwork.
One key takeaway: your best allies at the local level may be your strongest opponents in parliament, and vice versa. PS, for example, will likely lead the opposition in the federal parliament but could be allied with MR and Les Engagés in Brussels and some Walloon cities.
Another key takeaway: political players are human, driven by passions and personal relationships. Alliances can turn a loser at the polls into a winner in coalition talks.
The ultimate takeaway: talk to everyone. Betting on one party or single interlocutor is a risky strategy in Belgian public affairs, even locally. Diversify your contacts and strengthen networks across all levels of power.
3. Who are the De Wever, Bouchez, Rousseau, Prévot of tomorrow?
The local elections are an opportunity to identify the faces that will shape politics tomorrow. Here’s our (necessarily subjective) overview of some new personalities who are set to become influential within their parties and, likely, at the regional and federal levels.
Flanders
Els van Doesburg (N-VA) as the future mayor of Antwerp if Bart De Wever becomes prime minister.
Hannes Anaf (Vooruit), the future mayor of Turnhout, a Flemish MP since 2019, chaired the PFAS committee of enquiry.
Charlotte Verkeyn (N-VA), with a good personal score in Ostend and a seat in the Chamber.
In a depressing period for the liberal democrats, Sietse Wils’ (Verjonging) result in Bree seems to offer the young attorney nice prospects for the future.
Flemish MP Brecht Warnez (CD&V) has almost received as many preference votes as the first on the local CD&V list, thereby outperforming all other candidates.
Hafsa El-Bazioui (Groen) alderman in Gent, received 10.000 preference votes, despite the commotion around the Green list in that city.
Brussels
No real new faces, elections confirm the position of Ahmed Laaouej (PS) and David Leisterh (MR). A personality to watch out for Les Engagés: Christophe De Beukelaer, very involved in campaigns.
Wallonia
Victoria Vandeberg (MR) youngest mayor and advisor in Cabinet of Minister Jeholet.
Mathieu Perin (Les Engagés) mayor of Les Bons Villers and head of Cabinet of Minister Desquesnes.
Valérie Dejardin (PS) mayor of Limbourg and Walloon MP.
Manu Di Sabato (Ecolo), former Walloon MP, mayor of Frameries.
If you need a deeper dive into these results or advice on adapting your public affairs strategy, our team is at your disposal.